Crude oil on slippery slope; may find support at $50/barrel level

The Brent crude price made a high of $75.60 on April 25 and from there it has corrected to around $61, a fall of around 20 per cent. The WTI Crude has fallen from high of around 66.60 April 23 to $53.



MCX Crude oil prices have also reflected the same trend falling by around 21.5 per cent in the same time frame. From the Rs 4,692 per barrel level on April 23 to Rs 3,686 on June 3.

What led to the fall?
Trade tensions has rapidly heightened in the recent times with the US and China at loggerheads and Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico, a key trade partner and major supplier of crude oil.

The US president has vowed to ratchet up tariffs and according to the plan it would impose a 5 per cent tariff on Mexican imports starting June 10 and increase monthly, up to 25 per cent on October 1.

Moreover, additional levies by Beijing on the majority of US imports on a $60 billion target list took effect on June 1 in response to Washington's move this month to slap further tariffs of up to 25 per cent on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

The balance in oil market -- is it real?
Out of the total global world supplies of around 100 mbpd, almost 30 mbpd is supplied by the Opec nations, 12.5 mbpd by the US, around 11.15 mbpd by Russia. Which means 50 per cent of the total output is supplied by these three gigantic producers.

The balance in oil market has been disrupted on account of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which has taken away almost around 4.5 mbpd of supply at risk from these two countries ..

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