Fourth, comparing derivatives volumes to spot volumes is comparing the future to the present. Derivatives are bets on the future; the state of the spot market is a statement about present value. Comparing different time frames is meaningless. Of course there is much more future than present.
And fifth, notional volume does not give a reliable measure for overall risk exposure. It is an accounting construct that lumps together derivatives with a wide range of maturities; short-term has arguably much less risk than longer-term.
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