How much do you trust in India VIX, which points out the stock market move?

Last week, the domestic share market was hit by a break. After seven consecutive sessions of gain, the market sentiment was last seen in the last week. India's risk index 'India VIX' reached a high of six months before the results of the quarter ended March and the political hatchback.


India VIX tells about the movement of the market in the near future. The index climbed up to 21 per cent last week. Since October 2019, this index has been in the range of 14 to 19 per cent. This index reached level of 18.39 on April 5.

Calculation of India VIX is done on the basis of order book of Nifty Options. This calculation does the NSE. Market volatility is seen as a risk. As volatility increases, there is a possibility of a decline. But now the question arises that should you be worried about growing India VIX?

Looking at the three-year chart, there is no direct connection between the Nifty 50 Index and VIX. However, the analysis of short duration (10 days) presents a different picture.

After the analysis of brokerage firm Prabhudas Leeladhar, after the year 2013, whenever the level of India VIX has crossed 20, the returns of the Nifty 50 index on 55% occasions have been positive.

Sandeep Raichura, retail research chief, Prabhudas Leeladhar said that on many occasions the market volatility is natural. It involves the possibility of budget, elections and declines or weaknesses. It is not necessary that every time it is a decisive factor.

He said, "Should not just rely on India VIX. You should also look at other signals, run basic and technical reasons for the market, at least 50 per cent of the cases have proved to be true."

In the week ending April 12, the Nifty 50 index slipped 22.50 points or 0.19 percent to close at 11,643. There were signs of market weakness on the basis of MACD. In this case, the decline in the stock or index can be recorded.

Managing director of Indiabulls Ventures Man Chopra said, "Nifty has managed to stay above 11,550 level last week, due to the rise in the daily charts, this index can reach new record levels in the near future."

He said that the base of the index on the weekly charts is big, which is a positive aspect. They expressed that if the Nifty crossed the level of 11,700, then it could also increase from 11,950 to 12,250. On Tuesday, the Nifty was trading at 11,700.

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